Qualcomm is about to lose a significant portion of its Apple cash, but JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee told Bazinga the company has opportunities elsewhere, particularly with Samsung.
Chatterjee said that Apple continued its efforts to develop an in-house modem, which will soon be seen in the iPhone SE.
While this is less than a percent of Qualcomm's QCT business, Apple will likely become more confident in its product and attempt to use its modems across its entire iPhone lineup.
If Apple moves to entirely in-house modems for the iPhone 17, Chatterjee warns this could result in "14 per cent of revenue.”
However, Chatterjee sees a significant opportunity for Qualcomm to regain its market share with Samsung. Samsung's flagship smartphones could provide a new source of growth for the company, stating that "winning back share with Samsung flagships could be a revenue/EPS tailwind of ~5% each in FY25."
This potential to increase business with Samsung is key to offsetting losses from Apple, particularly given Qualcomm’s focus on expanding into other areas like automotive, IoT, and PCs.
According to Chatterjee, these sectors are "positioned to eclipse the decline in revenue attributable to one of Qualcomm's largest customers."
Chatterjee is optimistic about Qualcomm's long-term outlook, emphasising the company’s “technology leadership in mobile SOC (and modem) technology.” He projects a "healthy, although modest relative to expectations, revenue CAGR of six per cent" from FY24 to FY27, bolstered by growth in non-smartphone segments like automotive and IoT.