Both companies admit the process is slower than expected, but it is certainly coming.
Addressing the gathered throngs at the Citi 2024 Global TMT conference Michael Dell, chairman and CEO of Dell Technologies, admitted the long-awaited cycle to swap out current computer fleets "has been delayed for sure."
Without offering any reasons for postponement he reckoned the refresh size is "going to be even bigger" because of it.
"So first of all, we have a certain date with Windows 10 end-of-life, and we're almost within a one-year window of that, and as you get in that one-year window, the enterprise IT people start screwing around and saying, 'Oh, we better do something about this'," said Dell.
HP CEO Enrique Lores told the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology conference that enterprises are also about to invest in new lines.
"First of all, there is a large and aging PC installed base. Many of these PCs were bought during COVID-19, and now, four [or] five years after they were bought, they will have to be replaced.
"We also see an opportunity driven by the Windows 11 refresh that is only starting now… this is behind some of the strength we see on the commercial side. Microsoft… will start discontinuing their support for the previous versions, and this always ties the replacement and upgrade," he said, adding, "This is going to be driving demand in the coming quarters."
It is a bit surprising that both Dell and HP expect AI PCs to help kick start the refresh.
Dell said if a new PC that lands on a user's desk which doesn't have an AI feature, they're "going to really wonder what happened."
"Everybody's going to want that. Every piece of software that you're going to use is going to have an AI assistant. You're already starting to see this. And most of those AI cycles are going to run locally on the PC.
"And this is just another piece of a long cycle in which you want your PC to do more than it did before. That's why you replace it. We're confident that the refresh is coming.
"I have not met any customers who have said, 'We're planning a refresh, but we don't want an AI-enabled PC.' It's sort of a question of what the cost is. What does it come with? Where is the software? The hardware always comes before the software. And so you see the whole industry gearing up."
However, analysts are less certain, saying that the use cases for AI PCs remain elusive and that sales will not accelerate without the killer app.
HP forecasts that half of all shipments will be AI PCs in three years, and Lores expects a 5-10 percent increase in average sales prices, which will uplift the entire PC category.
"AI PCs bring three clear benefits over traditional PCs," he said.
Lores said latency, the lower cost of running AI locally instead of in the cloud, and not needing to upload data to the cloud are all strong lures for CIOs.